Daily Market Recap
Local Cash Bids
USDA AMSCrude
energyWhat the market did
November WTI pushed back above $100 a barrel Friday for the first time in about a month, up roughly 3% near $100.70–$100.90 by early afternoon ET, after settling up $2.88 at $97.97 Thursday. December Brent traded near $109.30, up about 3%, its highest since mid-September. Crude was on pace for a weekly gain of about 5%. Products lagged Thursday: heating oil settled down 8.18 cents at $4.8456 and RBOB down 7.93 cents at $3.1802.
What drove it
- Shipping risk in the Strait of Hormuz: at least nine commercial ships attacked this week, and CENTCOM said an Iranian missile sank the container ship GFS Pride on Wednesday.
- Ukraine said it will resume strikes on Russian refineries as the declared "energy ceasefire" unraveled, adding to diesel-supply worries.
- EIA reported a U.S. commercial crude draw of more than 8 million barrels for the week ended Oct. 9, tied to Gulf Coast shut-ins from Hurricane Isaias.
- Offsets: IEA members agreed to speed up emergency stock releases, and reports said the U.S. was weighing easing sanctions on some Russian tankers.
Reports to watch
- EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report — Wed Oct 21, 10:30 AM ET
- Baker Hughes rig count — Fri Oct 16, 1:00 PM ET
Sources
Soybeans
grainsWhat the market did
November soybeans settled down 14 cents at $12.63 Thursday, a seven-week low and a fourth straight loss. They slid further overnight and were down about 4 cents at midday Friday after bouncing off the session low. Beans are headed for a weekly loss, from about $12.88 at last Friday's close.
What drove it
- NOPA's September crush came in at 196.3 million bushels, a 13-month low and well below trade expectations near 205 million. Soybean oil stocks fell to their lowest since 2014.
- Harvest of a forecast record U.S. crop is moving quickly in dry weather.
- China kept buying: USDA flash sales Friday included 558,000 t to China plus 236,000 t to unknown destinations, the third straight day of China sales. DTN counted more than 50 million bushels of new sales announced this week.
- Firm crude helped soybean oil recover to about unchanged Friday afternoon.
Reports to watch
- USDA Crop Progress — Mon Oct 19, 4:00 PM ET
- USDA Export Sales — Thu Oct 22, 8:30 AM ET
Sources
Corn
grainsWhat the market did
December corn settled down 2.75 cents at $4.78 Thursday, its lowest settlement since Aug. 13 and the sixth decline in seven sessions. It was down about 4 cents at midday Friday, in the mid-$4.70s, and is tracking a third straight weekly decline from $4.7975 last Friday.
What drove it
- Harvest pressure after USDA's larger-than-expected crop outlook earlier this month.
- Brazil's Conab put the 2027 Brazilian corn crop at 148 MMT, well above USDA's estimate.
- Demand helped cushion the drop: EIA ethanol output rose to about 1.065 million barrels per day for the week ended Oct. 9, a one-month high. USDA flash sales Friday included 127,000 t to Japan, and DTN noted U.S. corn is now priced below Brazil for December shipment.
Reports to watch
- USDA Crop Progress — Mon Oct 19, 4:00 PM ET
- EIA ethanol data (Weekly Petroleum Status Report) — Wed Oct 21, 10:30 AM ET
- USDA Export Sales — Thu Oct 22, 8:30 AM ET
Sources
Wheat
grainsWhat the market did
December Chicago wheat settled down 3 cents at $6.70 Thursday. It fell to about $6.59 overnight, the lowest since Aug. 12, and was down about 11 cents at midday Friday. December KC hard red winter wheat was down about 11 cents, and MIAX spring wheat about 8 cents. Chicago is headed for a seventh straight weekly decline. Matif December wheat closed €2 lower at €246.25/t Thursday.
What drove it
- Weak U.S. export demand and a firm dollar earlier in the week.
- Faster winter wheat planting and better Plains crop conditions after recent rain.
- Attacks on Black Sea shipping lent some support Thursday but didn't last into Friday.
- For PNW growers: Portland cash bids and basis are on our Basis tracker.
Reports to watch
- USDA Crop Progress (winter wheat planting and emergence) — Mon Oct 19, 4:00 PM ET
- USDA Export Sales — Thu Oct 22, 8:30 AM ET
Sources
Metals
What the market did
December gold futures traded around $4,160–$4,200 Friday. They were up about $15 in early afternoon ET, with spot near $4,184 in the morning. Gold is on track for a small weekly loss of about 0.2%. Silver futures were softer, around $57, down about 0.5% on the day, and well below last week's level near $60.
What drove it
- The dollar was heading for its first weekly drop in five weeks, which helped bullion.
- In an IMF speech, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh gave no new signal on policy. CME FedWatch prices an October hold and about a 91% chance of a December hike, and higher rates weigh on non-yielding metals.
- Industrial-metal softness (copper fell about 1% Thursday) weighed on silver more than gold.
Reports to watch
- CFTC Commitments of Traders — Fri Oct 16, 3:30 PM ET
- Fed speakers ahead of the next FOMC meeting
Sources
Index (SPY)
indexWhat the market did
The S&P 500 was down about 0.6–1% Friday afternoon (SPY near $763–$765), and the Nasdaq fell 1.4–1.9%. The Dow was down about 0.4% but still on pace for a second straight weekly gain of about 1%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are set for weekly losses after Thursday's rebound, when the S&P closed up 0.33% at 7,744.06.
What drove it
- Renewed selling in AI, software, and semiconductor stocks. CoreWeave came under pressure again over its debt load.
- Money rotating into defensive sectors; health care hit record highs.
- Oil back above $100 added to inflation and rate worries, with markets pricing a likely Fed hike in December.
Reports to watch
- Earnings next week: Tesla, Netflix, Meta
- EIA petroleum report — Wed Oct 21 (an energy-price input to the inflation outlook)